MAILBAG: Has the Trail Blazers' Timeline Been Accelerated?

What a great response to the latest call for mailbag questions.

Even with the stipulation that I didn't want to get into too much draft talk before the lottery, we got 15 questions, without a lot of repeated topics. I'm going to roll them out every day, today through Friday, over the course of this week.

Let's get started.

Any chance that the emergence of Deni & Toumani means that our timelines have moved forward? Not only are they both 24 (closer to Ant and Ayton age than Sharpe and Scoot) but they also are very cost controlled for the next few years. Which makes a Zion or Durant trade make more sense.

— Logan J.

It's definitely become clear that the Blazers' decision-makers believe they're past the being-bad-on-purpose stage of their rebuild.

Here's what Joe Cronin said on the last day of the season, at the press conference announcing his and Chauncey Billups' extensions:

"Got to get through this transaction window before we start talking with certainty. But moving forward, the playoffs are definitely a goal of ours. This is what we're working towards. The steps we took the second half of the season, now we've got to take this to the next level. We're not happy about our season ending today. We don't want our season to end this time next year. We've got to keep moving forward."

Cronin added that competing for the playoffs next season is a "reasonable expectation."

That's straight from the guy who makes the roster decisions, on the record. So they're definitely hoping to add at least one impact player this summer to make a real push for the playoffs.

As far as the two big names you floated—I don't think Kevin Durant makes sense at all for where these guys are. I don't think they have enough to get him (at least that they'd be willing to give up for a 37-year-old who would be a rental), and I don't think he'd be all that interested in playing here. That's a move you make when you think you can win a title next year, which is not where they're at.

Zion Williamson is a little more interesting, if the price is right. New Orleans has already made huge front-office changes since the season ended, and seems prepared to move on from Williamson. He's already been linked to the Blazers, around the 2023 draft when they were deciding whether to keep or trade the No. 3 overall pick.

The risk calculus is the same now as it was then. Williamson is probably the most talented player this team could realistically trade for. He's a true difference-maker when he's healthy, in shape and motivated. But can you count on that? He's played 30 or fewer games in four of his six seasons in the NBA.

The talent is so great that some team will talk themselves into Williamson simply needing a change of scenery with things having run their course in New Orleans. Maybe now that Cronin has an extension and some added job security, he'd be open to the idea.

It's going to depend on the price. All the red flags (medical and otherwise) will likely make Williamson's value lower than it should be for a player as good as him. These decisions are made way above my pay grade, but if it were me, I don't think I'd be comfortable giving up Scoot Henderson or Shaedon Sharpe in a Williamson trade.

But if it's a buy-low move and all it costs is matching salary, the 10th pick in this year's draft and maybe one future pick swap? Yeah, I'd take the swing. Worst-case scenario, if it doesn't work out they can cut bait easily as his contract is only guaranteed if he passes certain games-played and weight-related benchmarks.

What is the most realistic path to contention? What are the odds it happens?

— Brian W.

From where the Blazers sit, there are two paths to true contention that I can see.

One is to get lucky in the lottery. If they land Cooper Flagg, and he's as good as he's supposed to be, that changes a lot about what they can do and how good they can be. There is a 3.7 percent chance that happens, meaning there's a 96.3 percent chance it doesn't. The Hawks had the exact same odds a year ago and jumped up from 10th to No. 1, so it's been done. But you can't count on it. We'll find out on May 12.

The other path, the one they seem convinced is possible, is that one of their young players—maybe Henderson, Sharpe, Camara or Avdija—develops into a true franchise player.

Two weeks later, I'm still thinking about something Billups said at that press conference after he signed his new deal.

Cronin was asked how the Blazers hope to land a bonafide number-one star and gave the answer you'd expect, about being high on the talent they have in-house but knowing they need to add more.

Then, Billups jumped in:

"One more thing I would say is, you look around the league and say you need a star, and it's true. You've got to have top-flight guys. But to me, I think we're raising that. I think we're growing that. I look at when OKC traded for Shai, he wasn't a star yet. Now, he's probably going to be the MVP of the league. Joker wasn't a star when he got to Denver. They raised him into that. Giannis wasn't a star when he got to Milwaukee. They raised him into that. And I just think there's beauty in that. When you raise that, you raise guys playing the right way. They play right. Not 'Give me the ball, I've got it.' They just play right, because they were raised into that stardom. That's where we're trying to go here. Hopefully with some of the leaps—you look at what Deni's done, Shaedon, Scoot's taken a leap, I thought Ant had a really good year. It's a good group of guys. You talk about the stretch we were on, D.A. was 22 and 15 in that stretch. A lot of situations that we're raising that I think are pretty cool. Most people would say, yeah, go get such-and-such. We might have that person. We might already have those guys. We'll see."

It's a nice thought. I don't know if bringing up Shai Gilgeous-Alexander, Nikola Jokic and Giannis Antetokounmpo, who most people think are the three best players in the NBA, is the best way to suggest that Sharpe, Camara or Avdija could have higher ceilings than most people think. But if one of those three turned into the MVP of the league in the next couple of years, that would certainly help with making the Blazers a contender. I'd put the odds of that somewhere around their odds of winning the lottery: not zero but not something you can bank on.

Can the Blazers be patient and continue to build incrementally, collect assets, not destroy future cap flexibility and hope somebdy else pops (or hit the jackpot in the lottery)?

— Scott R.

We'll find out. That's what they're trying to do. It's a tough needle to thread, but the messaging since the end of the season has been that they think they can do it.