MAILBAG: Has Donovan Clingan Hit a Rookie Wall?

Last week, I put out a call for mailbag questions and I was happy to see a lot of variety in the topics. Given where the Trail Blazers’ season is, I expected a lot of calls to fire the coach and calls to trade certain players, and there was some of that, which we’ll address over the course of the week.

But there were other topics, too. Later in the week, we’ll get into Jabari Walker’s future with the team, current assessments of Scoot Henderson and Shaedon Sharpe, and whether Greg Oden is going to have a role with the organization in light of his recent return to Portland—as well as some trade stuff.

To start off, part one of this mailbag touches on Donovan Clingan’s rookie season, how much pressure is on Joe Cronin from ownership to get the rebuild right, and what’s separating this team from being a playoff contender.

Sean, I appreciate you and your willingness to engage us! My question is about Clingan: His productivity and energy seems to be down... Is he hitting the proverbial "Rookie Wall" or are there more nuanced issues for his reduced impact as of late?

- Mike W.

I like Donovan Clingan as he has a great attitude and aptitude for the game. But with his offensive limitations and lack of speed, is he a realistic #1 center? Or is he perhaps destined for a backup role in the NBA?

- Gary G.

There’s definitely a little bit of a rookie wall going on with Clingan right now. You also have to remember that he missed two weeks and seven games with a knee sprain, so there’s going to be some rust there. I thought his performance against the Bucks over the weekend was one of his best of the season, on the defensive end.

As far as his long-term ceiling, I think he’s impactful enough defensively to be a starter. The offense is still very far away. His instincts on that end have to get a lot better for him to be one of the best centers in the league, but he’s so advanced on the defensive end already at his age that I’m not really worried about his place in the NBA.

When will ownership hold Cronin accountable for his mismanagement of the Blazers? He has repeatedly misled the public, kept players on the roster for far too long, made questionable trades with little return, and shown a lack of understanding when it comes to managing the team’s budget. Additionally, his indecisiveness regarding the team’s direction, stringing along the head coach, and neglect of player development for the younger roster members are concerning. It's time for a change.

- Dan I.

Without getting down a rabbit hole, I’d push back on some of that (I still think Cronin did well on the Damian Lillard trade given the circumstances, and the early returns on the Deni Avdija trade are great) but not all of it (he may have waited too long to trade some of the guys we’re talking about this deadline, and I don’t think the current lame-duck coaching situation is doing anyone any favors). I do think they’re in a better place right now than they were in a year ago, because they’ve had some better injury luck and there is at least some clarity on which guys are worth keeping around long-term. But it hasn’t been perfect and not every decision (or non-decision) has been the right one. I won’t tell any fan they shouldn’t feel frustrated by the current state of the team.

I’d love to be able to give you insight into what exactly ownership’s feelings are on where the team is headed and the job this front-office regime has done, but I’ve never had the opportunity to ask them about it. I’ve met Bert Kolde twice in my life and never been within 20 feet of Jody Allen because she’s surrounded by security detail at every Blazers game she comes to (which, by the way, is more than you’d think for an owner that’s supposedly as “disinterested” as people make her out to be).

All I can do is guess, and my best guess is that Cronin has at least another year beyond this one before he starts to feel any real heat. He’ll have the opportunity to choose a head coach this summer (remember, Chauncey Billups was Neil Olshey’s hire, not his), and then we’ll see how next year goes. Everyone knows the goal for this season is to get Cooper Flagg, but I don’t think there’s much of an appetite for anyone in the organization to continue to be this bad beyond this season.

Hey Sean, does the team lose any extra money, or have to dish out any extra, by letting Chauncey go before the end of the season and letting Bjorkgren have a stint as an interim Head Coach? If the consensus is that Billups and the team will part ways at the end of the season, then why not let someone who showed some good things for his two-game stint get some more run?

- Jethro S.

If the Blazers were to fire Billups in-season, they’d have to pay out the rest of his salary for this year. I don’t know the specifics of Nate Bjorkgren’s contract, but typically, if an assistant gets promoted to interim head coach in the middle of the year, they get a small bump in pay for the increased responsibilities. So the Blazers are saving a little money by keeping things the way they are until the end of the season, but not enough money that it should be a reason not to do it if they felt it was necessary.

I don’t think they’re going to make the change until the end of the season at this point. But, those two games Bjorkgren filled in last month notwithstanding, I’d suggest doing a little reading on how things went in Indiana before getting too excited about the idea of him taking over as head coach.

Not sure how to phrase this, but what is the biggest difference between the Blazers as constructed today vs being a legitimate contender?

Whenever I watch games it feels like all the pieces are there, so my instinct is to blame coaching.... but that sounds like an easy button.

- Cameron D.

The biggest difference is simple: they need a legitimate star as a franchise centerpiece. You may think Shaedon Sharpe has that kind of upside, you may think Scoot Henderson eventually gets there, you may think Deni Avdija has another leap coming, but none of them are close to that level right now. And when I say “legitimate star as a franchise centerpiece,” I mean what Lillard was here for 11 years and LaMarcus Aldridge before that. What the Timberwolves have in Anthony Edwards and what the Thunder have in Shai Gilgeous-Alexander.

A lot of the Blazers’ current young pieces, like Sharpe, Clingan, Avdija and Toumani Camara, are better players than teams early in a rebuild typically have. So the thought, certainly from the front office, is that whenever they do get the guy who’s going to be the star—ideally Flagg, maybe Dylan Harper or Ace Bailey—the rest of the core is in a good place and they’ll be able to move forward quickly. But they need that guy. I think that’s the bigger separator between this team and playoff contender status than coaching.